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Global Broadband is Speeding Up, Says latest “State of the Internet” Report

First Quarter, 2012 State of the Internet Report from Akamai

Photo Credit: Akamai http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/

The broadband revolution is proceeding apace across the globe as internet speed and adoption have increased at faster paces. The Akamai company recently released its First Quarter, 2012 State of the Internet report which discusses important global broadband statistics like internet penetration rates, mobile connection speeds, regional and global connection speeds, and broadband adoption among many others. The report, in addition to providing invaluable insight into global trends in broadband, also underscores the role broadband and mobile technologies can play in the future of development.

Thanks to an ever-increasing demand for connectivity in both developed and emerging economies the world has seen a dramatic rise. Broadband speed has increased to such an extend that Akamai has redefined what it calls “high-broadband.” Previously, any connection at speeds of 2Mbps or higher was defined as broadband, but now Akamai will consider connections of 4Mbps has broadband and connections of 10Mbps has high broadband.

For the first quarter of 2012, the report points out a series of trends:

A 6 percent global increase in the number of unique IP addresses to over 666 million in between fourth quarter 2011
A global average of peak connection speed of 13.5 Mbps
A global average connection speed of 2.6Mbps
A global average mobile connection speed range between 32.2 Mbps and 2.2 Mbps
A doubling in global mobile data traffic between the first quarters of 2011 and 2012
A global increase in adoption of high broadband

These statistics are certainly promising, especially when considered within the context of the increasingly important role broadband and mobile broadband can play in process of development. The global doubling of mobile broadband certainly lends itself to the existing forecasts of the increasing prominence and importance of smartphones in many developing countries as price wars continue to drive down device prices. All this, when added with the World Bank’s recent Maximizing Mobile report on harnessing mobile for development, adds up to a future full of potential, fueled by broadband.

As we move forward it is important that we remember these technologies are only as good as their connection. Many developing countries still have a pronounced rural/urban digital divide in both access and connectivity. If the potential of these technologies can be fully realized, it is crucial that policy makers commit reducing these gaps.

August 30, 2012/by actualize

Africa, Areas of Expertise, Economic Growth, Information and Communication Technology for Development, Where we work

Massive New Submarine Cable to Bring High-Speed Broadband Access to West Africa

Bandwidth problems in West Africa may soon become a thing of the past when the Africa Coast to Europe (ACE) broadband submarine cable comes online this December. The US$700 million will interconnect a total of 23 countries in Europe and West Africa, including two Integra and GBI clients, Nigeria and Ghana. This massive infrastructure project aims to bring high-speed broadband internet to these developing countries in order to reduce the digital divide and serve as “a vector of social development and economic growth in Africa.”

Led by the France Telecom company, this broadband system will extend over 17,000 km to from Brittany in France to Cape Town in South Africa. Parts of Europe and 16 West African countries will be interconnected by the submarine cable. Connectivity will extend even to the landlocked nations of Mali and Niger who will be connected via their own terrestrial links.

The cable itself has an initial 1.92 terabytes per second (Tb/s) capacity that can be upgraded to a whopping 5.12 Tb/s. ACE will use cutting edge fiber optic technology developed by Alcatel-Lucent that offers a higher quality of high-speed broadband than satellite at a lower cost. Utilizing new wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM)technology, the ACE stations can be upgraded without any actual modifications to the cable itself. This is a significant increase in the broadband capacity for these countries. Gambia for example, is estimated to have an increase in capacity by a factor of 16.

Increasing bandwidth capacity is crucial for enabling increased broadband penetration rates within a county. In 2011, the Broadband Commission for Digital Development issued a report that identified broadband as a “tool of unprecedented power” in helping countries meet the millennial development goals in 2015. Additionally, a report from the World Bank showed that a 10% increase in broadband penetration in developing economies correlates with a 1.38% contribution to economic growth. With ACE online, West Africa will be able to access a plethora of new opportunities.

June 25, 2012/by actualize

Humanitarian Assistance, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

Access to Knowledge in Emergency situations: Looking at the situation in Jordan and in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Written by Sonia Randhawa and reposted from GenderIT.org.

Access to knowledge is vital at any time. This is especially evident in times of emergency where a lack of knowledge can be disastrous, as graphically illustrated during the Asian tsunami of 2004 when meteorological services were aware of an impending disaster, but were unable to find channels of communication to warn affected communities. Also graphic in this instance was the gendered nature of the disaster – in Aceh, up to 80% of those killed by the tsunami were women. Reasons given for this range from the nature of women’s clothing, that women were more likely to be at home at the time of the tsunami and that women were more likely to put the safety of their children before their own safety.

This is not an isolated case. Natural disaster statistics are rarely disaggregated by gender, although anecdotal evidence suggests that women are disproportionately affected. In addition, analysts argue that disasters occur by design and that the impact of natural disasters shows a bias towards the socially excluded. According to Elaine Emerson:

“On balance, those most socially excluded and economically insecure in any society or

community are least able to access or control resources needed during and in the aftermath of a

damaging cyclone or lengthy drought. Women, the frail elderly and children, members of

subordinated cultural or racial groups, the chronically ill, undocumented residents, the pre-disaster

homeless, and other socially marginalized populations are least likely to have the social power,

economic resources, and physical capacities needed to anticipate, survive, and recover from the

effects of massive floods, long-lasting drought, volcanic eruptions, and other extreme environmental events.”

This has led to aid and relief agencies such as Oxfam attempting to counter previous gender-blind policies that worsened the impact of disasters on women. The lack of gender disaggregated informationⁱ on the impact of natural disasters is a key problem in addressing the gendered nature of their impacts.

This article will compare two very different situations, that of a comparatively developed nation in the Middle East and a nation that has been ravaged by over a decade of civil strife and war. Jordan in the Middle East has one of the lowest internetⁱ penetration rates in the region, but almost a fifth of people have internet access. The GDP per capita, in purchasing power parity of Jordan is over 10 times that of DRC.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has an average life expectancy of just 45 and internet penetration of under 2 percent. While urban areas are relatively safe from conflict, over 2 million people have been displaced in the Eastern part of the nation, and violence continues to claim around 1,200 people per day, either directly in conflict, or indirectly through deaths due to a lack of clean drinking water or other easily avoidable health problems.

The similarities between Jordan and the DRC are few. But in both societies the status of women remains low, when compared with other countries in the region, and internationally. The Global Gender Gap Report 2006 ranked Jordan as 105th out of 115 countries in terms of closing its gender gap in economic participation and opportunities, while there are few Jordanian women in leadership positions in either politics or business, the number of Jordanian women enrolled in ICT courses has outstripped men, since the mid-00s. Nevertheless, and despite the Governmentⁱ‘s key role in ICT policyⁱ, women make up less than a fifth of the core ICT workforce.

One of the main problems women have in accessing knowledge is directly related to poverty and illiteracy. In both countries, the interviewees said the problem of access to knowledge in an emergency situation is only part of a general problem of women’s access to knowledge – although women’s literacy rates in Jordan are among the highest in a highly literate region.

This is further worsened when it comes to issues of sexual and reproductive health due to cultural taboos surrounding the discussion of sexual violence – issues that are particularly crucial in DRC where sexual violence is increasingly seen as an acceptable method of subduing one’s perceived cultural or racial enemies. In one month in 2008, 1,200 women were reported to have been raped.

Literacy and education

The main problems facing women who need to access information in an emergency situation are those they are faced with daily. Key among these is low levels of literacy. While in the short-term, such as in a natural disaster, word of mouth or radio are usually key providers of information; in the aftermath a lack of literacy can severely hamper women’s ability to respond to situations or absorb new information quickly and effectively.

This is related to women’s access to education. In DRC, there are few women who attend university, and it is seen as an impediment to making a good marriage – educated men prefer wives with little education, according to Lulu Mitshabu. There are few educated role models for women to emulate, either in government or private enterprise, and if a family has the choice between spending resources to educate a boy child or a girl child, the boy child will receive preference. In conflict areas, children of both sexes are faced with the problem of losing several years education due to displacement, and there are few facilities to help those in such a situation – the already over-stretched aid agencies are concentrating on ensuring the short-term survival of the refugees. Considering both the long-term nature of the conflict and that there are no apparent solutions in sight, this problem is acute. Ms Mitshabu also says that the impact of this on access to knowledge is disastrous – not only are children unable to read or write, this also hampers their ability to assess information, making them vulnerable to manipulation, particularly dangerous in a conflict that is fuelled by racial tensions.

In contrast, women’s access to education in Jordan is comprehensive. There are more girls enrolled in primary school and secondary school. Yet, according to Daoud Kuttab, this disguises regional (and generational) differences in literacy and access to knowledge. And while Jordan has made vocal commitments to ensuring that it is considered a prime destination for ICT investors, particularly those looking at outsourcing operations, there was nothing that specifically addressed gender inequities in ICT access until May 2007. The new policy says “Government notes the importance of the ICT sector with respect to women’s role in Jordanian society and the Jordanian economy. Accordingly, Government will work with stakeholders to ensure the continuous promotion of women’s participation in the IT sector through the support of women’s empowerment.”

This does not mention any specific commitment to not only ensuring women have access to ICT education, but also that there are appropriate job opportunities for them once they leave tertiary education.

Infrastucture

In both Jordan and DRC, a lack of infrastructure was seen as a key impediment to the generalised lack of information dissemination. In DRC, for example, in the earlier days of the conflict, one of the key means of transmitting information was via community radio. Community radio was key in informing people of possible attacks and in providing information on rehabilitation after attacks.

In addition, the ability of people to receive radio signals has been severely eroded. Many refugees have been forced to flee their homes repeatedly. In many instances, a person with a radio may become a hub for a community anxious to learn news.

Lulu Mitshabu says that community radio was particularly important to women, as it was not only more interested in the concerns of women than stateⁱ-sponsored media, it gave women a chance to be heard on radio. This was an effective means of empowering women, and helping women leaders in the community to spread information. However, given the scarcity both of transmitters and receivers, this is no longer an effective means of transmitting information.

Even less effective is internet and computer technology – even in the comparatively developed state of Jordan. In both countries, the technology is confined to an urban elite. In DRC, single women may access the internet through cafes, mainly to communicate with relatives overseas – but even this is curtailed by their husbands once they are married. In both countries, access to the internet in remote areas, and in DRC in the conflict areas, is severely limited, both by the infrastructure and by the levels of computer and internet literacy.

It is an area of policy development that has been lacking, not just in Jordan but in the region. While Jordan both hosted the World Association of Community Radio Broadcasters (AMARC)’s Ninth General Assembly and has approved community radio licences within university campuses, AMARC has recommended improving legislation to allow more community radio licences. Daoud Kuttab says it is the best way to help women take control of information, “A community radio station in Jordan is the perfect communication tool that will provide people of all ages and social backgrounds of vital information that they need whether it be related to daily needs or farming needs.”

Credibility of information

In DRC, the ability to disseminate vital information rapidly is also hampered by the skepticism of recipients of information. Having been victims of conflict for over a decade, people will only believe information from trusted sources, often those known to them personally such as village chiefs. Women’s subordinate position in society and their lack of education can limit their effectiveness as providers of information, reinforcing men in their position as gatekeepers of information.

This tendency for men to be gatekeepers is a situation that has been worsened in the conflict years in DRC. This in turn means that information that could save women’s lives, such as simple information on hygiene and health-care, is often not transmitted to the women who need it, as men do not see the transmission of this information to women as being important.

However, when educated women return to their villages, they can play this role – but few choose to do so. According to Lulu Mitshabu, this is partly because of the limited opportunities at the village level and partly due to migration of educated women overseas, where they are more likely to find educated marriage partners and greater opportunities.

Effective Technology

Unfortunately, the experience in DRC seems to indicate that all effective means of accessing knowledge are controlled by men. In Ms Mitshabu’s experience there are two major effective ways of communication, that can help in disaster preparedness and recovery. The first is mobile phone technology. The infrastructure for mobile phones is difficult to target, and has been largely unaffected by the conflict. SMS messages can be used to effectively disseminate information to a large audience in a short period of time. Unfortunately, mobile phones are largely the province of the men. There is no perceived need for women to own a mobile phone, and even if they did, the low literacy rates make SMS services largely useless.

The second way of effectively transmitting information is through traditional leadership roles – chiefs spreading information on how to deal with potential or existing threats. Once again, this largely excludes women from a role in either disseminating or receiving information. However, it is useful in ensuring that information transmitted is perceived as credible. This is also a network that has proved resilient in the face of conflict. It has the major downside of reinforcing existing gender roles.

Ways forward

In Jordan, where the Government is behind an initiative to put a computer in every home, emphasis needs to be given to making sure relevant information is available and to improve women’s computer literacy. However, Daoud Kuttab emphasises that this is not enough. He says, “Women need to take charge of the entire informational cycle that affects them from the source of information to the platforms that are available in which women are in editorial and senior managerial positions as well as ownership in the case of community media.”

He also points out the need to undo the impact of the filtering process of the male-dominated media and policy.

In DRC, Lulu Mitshabu says the need is to focus on low-tech solutions to disseminating knowledge, such as using posters and t-shirts. These need to be highly pictoral to ensure that they are effective regardless of literacy rates. In terms of emergency information, she stresses the need to set up parallel structures to mirror the informal networks that exist among men, helping to cultivate leadership among women and to encourage educated women to return to their communities to take up a leadership role. The main problem in the DRC remains not just that aid is provided in a gender-blind fashion, but also that there is not enough aid to provide for the humanitarian disaster of the region.

October 14, 2011/by actualize

Connectivity, Legal & Regulatory, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

How to Stop the Next Famine in Somalia? Internet Infrastructure

I wrote a blog post a few weeks ago about a series of ways that Somalia could get broadband Internet connectivity. The article was reposted in several British, Somali and Kenyan online newspapers and was even criticized by a group of IT professionals in Somaliland. Given the hunger crisis outbreak in the Horn of Africa since then, I want to revisit the issue of connectivity in Somalia. It appears that mobile and Internet access is being recognized as a crucial need for humanitarian agencies.

Photo: AP

Information and communication technology (ICT) services during humanitarian crisis are much improved from a few years ago. Ushahidi and Frontline SMS have demonstrated the power of text services. Mobile money by MercyCorps in Haiti provided some organized method of food distribution and sustained economic activity. The government of Luxembourg recently partnered with the World Food Programme to test a connectivity kit to restore voice and text communications when power systems are wiped out during natural disasters. The list could go on.

A famine is different than other disasters, however. It does not affect ICT infrastructure directly as a hurricane or tsunami would. ICTs, then, can play a key role in organizing humanitarian relief efforts during a famine or crisis of any sort. In addition, ICTs can prevent famines because of the increased communication they can provide.

Remember economist Amartya Sen’s claim that a famine has never occurred in a working democracy? Famines are not so much a result of a lack of food, but rather a lack of effective distribution and communication. Democracies, with all their checks and balances of power, give enough voice to the people so that food is delivered when needed.

I argue that the amount of communication inherent in a democracy is the real key to the distribution and production of food that stops a famine. Public communication, not necessarily democracy, stops famines. In fact, what Sen defines as a “working” democracy, is simply a democracy where people of all social classes have a voice. A “working” democracy, then, is itself founded on the principles of the equality of communication.

It isn’t social media that will end the famine, but it is a process and steady cycle of communication between social groups. The more communication, the less social injustice—famine included. This type of communication can better occur with significant ICT infrastructure, which allows people in different locations to still communicate and share ideas.

One of the better ways to increase communication in a nation is mobile and Internet services along with IT infrastructure. I spoke with Bitange Ndemo, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of ICTs and a Director of the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK), this week about possible broadband cable connections with Somalia. He was optimistic and outlined some possibilities, contingent on the Somali political environment. Ndemo explained that Kenya has broadband cables and a microwave just 2 km from the border with Somalia in Mandera. Both Kenyan and Somali telecoms have approached CCK, hoping to make a connection into Somalia. However, Kenya has declined as of now, for security risks. If they route the cable into Somalia then they risk privacy concerns and people cutting the cables. Given the political instability in Somalia right now, Kenya has yet to route the cable. Somalia remains unconnected to the rest of the East African Backhaul System, and still remains without any lighted fiber-optic cables, greatly limiting Internet usage and global communication.

It may seem strange for a government to invest in expensive broadband cables when its citizens are struggling to find enough food, but perhaps such an investment would end up ending its struggles with famine. Or, instead of the Somali government investing in IT infrastructure, they could grant easier regulations to private telecoms, and let them route and light cables throughout the nation. This would leave the government with less control over the telecommunications industry, but would save any financial costs.

Ultimately, though, the manner in which Somalia increases public communication is not as important as making sure that something is done to increase IT infrastructure throughout the nation. At the end of the day, food security concerns are tied to communication capabilities, and mobile and Internet infrastructure can play a significant role in decreasing the probability of famine.

August 9, 2011/by actualize

Connectivity, Legal & Regulatory, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

Mozambique Socially Invests in ICTs for Rural Development

While recent studies in the developed world show that the Internet actual reinforces economic disparity and even social classes, Mozambique is taking a unique approach to utilize information and communication technologies (ICTs) to break down economic and social disparity.

The government signed a memorandum of understanding with a domestic service provider, MCEL, to roll out Internet and mobile services specifically in rural areas. The two allocated $255 to this effort.

Current Internet penetration in Mozambique is only at 2.7% (2010 data), and mobile penetration is at 26% (2009 data), slightly lower than its neighbors. As can be seen on the following map, coverage is limited in Mozambique.

It is surprising, then, that the government is taking specific action to bring Internet and mobile access to rural populations, since penetration in urban areas is still quite low. People in urban areas arguably have greater need for the Internet and mobile services for their jobs, while rural people tend to communicate less with others and focus on agricultural production.

Photo: Mark.W.E

The expansion of ICT services to rural Mozambique can stimulate human development in rural areas, however, when used correctly. There are plenty of applications that apply particularly to rural peoples, like mHealth and mAgriculture such as Esoko and Medic Mobile. The Mozambique government is hoping that an increase in ICT access in rural areas will stimulate human development there, which will in turn raise the economy and eliminate disparity.

In other words, Mozambique’s ICT policy displays the fact that it has different development priorities than many other developing countries. If they were totally focused on economic growth, they would use their funds to increase connectivity and ICT services in urban areas, which would increase the use of ICTs by those who are most likely to use ICTs for business endeavors. However, Mozambique is instead utilizing their ICT funds for social goals, like helping the poorest of the poor. Many countries talk about bringing access to the poor through their Universal Access Funds, but Mozambique is actually funding socially-justifiable ICT programs over economically-justifiable ones. They deserve a round of applause.

August 3, 2011/by actualize

Economic Growth & Trade, Economic Policy and Governance, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

The Debated Economic Impacts of the Internet

Photo: chrisharrison.net

Many international development projects promote national Internet infrastructure with the assumption that increased connectivity will lead to economic growth which will in turn increase the quality of life for citizens in the recipient nations. However, what is the measured impact of Internet penetration on economic growth?

The World Bank
- 10% increase in Internet penetration leads to a 1% increase in GDP
ITU Broadband Commission
- 10% increase in broadband penetration in China contributes to a 2.5% growth in GDP
- 10% increase in broadband penetration in low and middle-income countries contributes to a 1.4% increase in economic growth
- Access to broadband in Brazil has added approximately 1.4% to employment
- Broadband will create 2 million jobs by 2015 in Europe
Kenyan Economic Update
- Person to person mobile money transfers equated to about 20% of national GDP, with about two-thirds of adults engaging in transfers
- ICTs are responsible for 0.9% of the 3.7% annual economic growth in Kenya over the past ten years. In other words, ICTs accounted for one-fourth of the GDP growth in Kenya the past decade.

In addition to these statistics, the Broadband Commission released the following table on the impact of broadband on employment:

Table: Broadband Commission - A Platform for Progress

Despite these promising statistics, there are critics of broadband’s correlation with economic growth. Charles Kenny from the Center for Global Development recently attacked the World Bank’s claim that 10% increase in Internet penetration leads to a 1% increase in national GDP. Kenny argued that the study was not peer-reviewed or ultimately published (both of these claims are correct).

Overall, however, studies on national economies and Internet penetration seem to demonstrate a positive correlation between the two. Hopefully, the ITU’s Broadband Commission will be able to produce more definitive studies in the future, though given their political stance in favor of broadband adoption, it may be more difficult for the ITU to be objective.

July 28, 2011/by actualize

Economic Growth & Trade, Economic Policy and Governance, Originally posted on the GBI Portal, Trade & Investment

Hong Kong in Honduras

Trujillo, Honduras - Site of first charter city. Photo: MundoTV

Dr. Paul Romer, economist professor at New York University, is in talks with the Honduras government to establish “new reform zones,” designed to attract foreign investors. The “charter cities” would be about 1000 square kilometers in size, and be run by foreign developers with their own laws, leasing the land from the Honduras government.

I corresponded with Dr. Romer about the role of broadband technology in charter cities, particularly in Honduras. His responses to my questions are listed below. Additionally, Dr. Romer’s presentation at TEDGlobal2009 can be seen here, and an update on the progress in Honduras from TED2011 is located here.

President Lobo of Honduras supports the “cuidad modelo” concept, and endorsed it to government officials. Last month, the President announced that Trujillo would be the first charter city, with investors from South Korea, Canada, and England, as well as support from the Inter-American Development Bank.
The importance of terrestrial fiber cables for broadband connectivity to charter cities will probably be essential to their economic success. Additionally, if the cities are to slowly be incorporated into the rest of Honduras’ economy, it will be crucial that traditional businesses in Honduras go online in order to trade with the businesses present at the charter cities.

The social and political implications of a charter city are hotly debated, as critics express their concerns that charter cities are too similar to colonialism and require nations’ to lose their sovereignty. These issues are complex, and should be debated. Despite this, Dr. Romer’s vision is thought-provoking and is being put into practice in Honduras. His answer regarding the role of broadband in charter cities, are listed below:

1. What would be the role of ICTs, particularly broadband Internet in a charter city?

As the developing world urbanizes this century, the cities that will stand out will be the ones that join the global network of hub cities. ICT is one of the key interfaces that will link hub cities to one another, along with the shipping container and the airplane.

The driving force of economic life is the non-rivalry of ideas. Because we can share ideas, each idea has a value proportional to the number of people who use it. Cities are enormous sources of value because they allow us to share ideas in face-to-face exchanges with ever more people. Digital communications are a critical link for sharing the ideas that arise in one city with others around the world. The cities that make it efficient and safe for people to exchange goods, travel, and share information electronically will benefit enormously from an enhanced access to new ideas.

2. Would the Internet be considered a fundamental good in charter cities that should be provided by the government, such as electricity or water, or would it be left to the private sector?

The Internet is an extremely important service. That said, I’m not sure that there is one best way to deliver such utilities across all contexts, or that delivery should breakdown on strictly public or private lines. For much of the developing world, government provision and self-finance, supplemented by sovereign debt, might not be enough to provide citizens with access to adequate utilities and infrastructure. Governments will have to find ways to harness the private sector in order to provide adequate levels of service.

3. Do you envision the Internet being a platform for communication essential within charter cities or is it expendable?

Low cost bandwidth and redundant connections will be essential for any city that aspires to be a global hub.

4. In particular with Honduras, what technologies do you envision being publicly provided?

The Hondurans are discussing a model of land-based public finance in the new city. The autonomous development authority that is responsible for governing the new city would retain ownership of the underlying land and lease parcels to private developers to build residences, industrial parks, etc. The development authorities revenue would therefore depend on the value of the land.

This system gives the local authority an incentive to think like a sophisticated real estate developer and ask the right question when thinking about what the governing authority should do, either on its own or by working with private firms: What maximizes the value of the land?

Certain things come immediately to mind such as low-levels of crime and pollution, high quality schooling, and access to sear and air ports, but access to broadband and mobile telephony would certainly be important factors as well.

But again, whether things like infrastructure, utilities, or technologies are publicly or privately provided is somewhat of an open question. I can think of a couple scenarios in the Honduran context.

Suppose an equilibrium is reached where everyone expects a city of a given size to emerge in Honduras. There are several services with big fixed costs that could be provided by either the city administration or the private sector. Think for example of telecoms. The efficient financing arrangement would be for the city administration to pay for the provision of the telecoms infrastructure (fiber and wireless) and then price bandwidth using congestion pricing. In the case of fiber, congestion pricing might imply a zero price, but the city administration could finance fiber through the increase in the value of its land. Consumers would capture the entire consumer surplus from being able to use bits at marginal cost, and would be willing to pay more to live there as a result. So absent any constraints, the efficient arrangement might be for the city administration to rely more on its own ability to borrow against increases in the value of the land and less on monopoly prices charged by private sector providers.

Now consider the other case. Suppose that there is some uncertainty about whether the equilibrium with a fully developed city will be sustained and therefore some constraint on the city administration’s ability to borrow against the future value of the land. In this case, one might want to rely more on private sector financing. The city administration could give private concessions for services like telecoms, roads, utilities that will not be fully competitive. It could regulate pricing, setting some kind of average cost pricing that keep monopoly distortions from being too big, but allowing for the unavoidable level that comes with prices above marginal cost. This will, in the long run, make the city less attractive as a place to live and show up in the price of land, but might be a second-best solution to the initial financing problems.

One might also use a transitional approach, like build, operate, transfer, where the city administration takes over infrastructure later and shifts toward marginal cost/congestion pricing later.

The point is that given these tradeoffs, the right division is between private and public finance in the early stages of development will have to be made in response to public expectations that affect the city government’s ability to borrow. There is some capital like equipment and structures that can be provided in a competitive market and that the private sector can provide entirely on its own, but much like roads, telecoms, and utilities it could go either way.

5. Do you have any strong opinions regarding the ITU’s Broadband Commission and the need to provide Internet to all people worldwide?

I certainly sympathize with the intentions, but I’m not a big believer in mandates or millennium goals or codified rights as a way to force governments to do their job well. I believe it is better to harness the power of competition by letting people vote with their feet. The vision behind charter cities is to help in creating a world where every family has a choice to move between several well-run cities that are actively competing for their residency. If would-be migrants had those kinds of options, governments would have the right incentives to extend things like broadband services to all people.

July 19, 2011/by actualize

Connectivity, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

How Broadband Will Get To Somalia Before You Know It

Child participates in USAID's Interactive Radio Instruction education program, the only possible ICT project currently in Somalia.

Last week, I interviewed Mohamed Ahmed Jama, CEO of Dalkom Somalia and board member of Frontier Optical Networks Ltd (FON) in Kenya. Mr. Jama described four potential Broadband cables that could be a part of a terrestrial backbone throughout East Africa, including in Somalia. A fifth was announced yesterday in Somaliland.

Though all three of these proposed links are just that—proposals—they are indicative of the rapid growth of Broadband connectivity in the region. Most East African governments are actively engaged in rolling out backbone terrestrial networks, while four years ago the World Bank called East African connectivity the world’s only “missing link.” South Sudan is working with the CTO to develop an ICT strategic plan, Burundi recently received funding from the World Bank, and Uganda has also invested as well. And private companies are facilitating the expansion of Broadband cables as well; they are working with the national governments to lay the cables and to fund the projects. The East African Backhaul System, recently announced as a combined $400 million partnership between Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo governments and a variety of private telecoms. The unique partnerships between the public and private sector make the ICT space in East Africa distinct from other regions.

Potential backbone networks in Somalia, Ethiopia, and South Sudan are listed here and can be seen on the following map (forgive the rough estimations, I did not draw this exact):

1. Somalia’s Connection to EASSy Cables (blue line)

According to Mr. Jama, Dalkom Somalia has built two cable landing sites in Somalia from the EASSy submarine cable, one in Somaliland and the other in Mogadisho, Somalia. Unfortunately, the government of Somaliland revoked Dalkom’s license last year before the cable was completed (scheduled to be finished in October, 2010). The Somaliland government claimed that they had already signed an agreement with a local company, SomCable. However, no additional work has been carried out since last year, leaving construction at a stand still and the region unconnected. In Mogadisho, on the other hand, the landing cable lays ready to be used, but remains unconnected due to security issues at the site. To make matters more frustrating, Dalkom has funding, contracts awarded and the regulatory approval to extend the cables from the landing site inward, creating a national terrestrial backbone. Security issues in the area are the only contingency.

2. Mombasa—Nairobi—Moyale, Ethiopia Cable (green line)

The EASSy submarine cable has been extended inland previously from Mombasa to Nairobi. For the past year, discussions have been underway been the Kenyan and Ethiopian government on possibly constructing a terrestrial cable from Nairobi to Moyale, on the Ethiopian border. However, with FON’s assistance, the cable has been built, but is yet to be lighted. The only remaining holdup is to sign an agreement of understanding with the Ethiopia government, which has historically been reluctant to work with private sector ICT companies.

3. Somalia—Kenya Connection (black line)

According to Mr. Jama, there is 560 km remaining between fiber optic terrestrial backbone cables in Somalia and the state of Mandera in Northeastern Kenya. Mr. Jama proposes that the Kenyan government bring the fiber to the border, and then Dalkom Somalia would complete the Somali side. This connection would connect Somalia to the African backbone network. However, there has been intermittent violence on the Kenya-Somalia border in Mandera, with the most recent issue being a land mine blast that killed eleven Kenyan officers. The volatility of the border could potentially lead to another security standstill before lighting the fiber, like in Mogadisho. Dalkom and the governments, then, need to concern themselves not only with the technical issues and construction of the remaining fiber, but also on the political instability of the region.

4. Juba—Lokichogio Link (red line)

Southern Sudan and Kenya plan to construct a fiber optic cable link between the two nations as part of a larger project entitled “four-in-one.” The project includes the construction of a railway line from Lodwar-Lokichogio to Juba, road rehabilitation, an oil pipeline, and fiber optic cables. Currently, the governments need to conduct a feasibility test given the mountainous nature of the route, especially the Great Rift Valley. In all likelihood, the project will not be finished before 2015.

5. Djibouti—Somaliland SomCable (orange line)

SomCable, supported by the interim government in the territory of Somaliland, reportedly signed an agreement to buy the necessary buildings and licensing in Djibouti to route the EASSy cable into Berbera and throughout Somaliland. The President of SomCable, Mr. Mohammed Gueti, announced his recent acquisitions just yesterday. Mr. Gueti has strong ties with the president of Djibouti’s family, arguably giving his company an advantage over Dalkom Somalia at winning the contract. However, as Mr. Jama points out, construction has yet to begin on this cable line, possibly suggesting that the announcement is merely a political move by the government of Somaliland as Mr. Gueti does has any rights to extend the EASSY Cable. Neither purchases any capacity from the members of the Consortium.

July 14, 2011/by actualize

Connectivity, Legal & Regulatory, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

Kenya and South Sudan Sign Fiber Agreement

The Deputy Director of Kenya Southern Sudan Liaison Office (KESSULO), Albert Origa explained: “We have developed a paper which has been presented to the Cabinet for approval. If approved, we will embark on the reconstruction of the railway and roads network, roll out a fiber optic cable and oil pipeline to connect the two countries.”

If connected, the cable will provide a stable information link for South Sudan to connect with the rest of Africa’s terrestrial fiber networks. And, of course, the railway line and oil pipes are promising economic developments for both nations.

Railroad station in North Sudan, similar to the places where the railway and adjacent fiber will be placed. Photo: Tim McKulka/UN Photo

Mr. Jama Mohammed, board member on Kenya’s Frontier Optical Networks (FON), also confirmed the plans. In a personal interview last week, before the Kenyan and South Sudan governments reached an agreement, Mr. Mohammed told me that the Kenyan government had built fiber to Lokichogio already, and was looking for a private telecom to manage the system and light the fiber. FON, however, was originally hesitant to sign until receiving a license in South Sudan, who announced recently a suspension of all telecommunications licenses until further notice. With the agreement reached this week, however, it appears that the Government of South Sudan will be willing to work with a private business to manage the system.

July 8, 2011/by actualize

Connectivity, Legal & Regulatory, Originally posted on the GBI Portal

Who’s Who in South Sudan’s New ICT Industry?

The interim Government of South Sudan (GoSS) has requested that telecoms companies operating in the region suspend work until the administration publishes new regulations for the sector, with no specific target date for the regulations to be published. Some early regulation methodologies were discussed in February of this year, when leaders in the ICT industry affiliated with South Sudan met with the Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation (CTO) and discussed a possible three-year strategic plan for the new nation.

Photo: CIO East Africa

In October 2010, CTO helped GoSS organize a conference, entitled ICT4D: Southern Sudan. From the conference and a previous ICT strategy report created by Pricewatershouse Coopers LLC in 2008, GoSS and CTO drafted an inception report during the consultation visit in February 2011, but they did not create any official policies. The strategic plan includes involving ICTs in all sectors of Sudan’s infrastructure and economy. CEO Dr. Ekwow Spio-Garbrah of the CTO exclaimed his excitement: “This new nation will have the opportunity to not merely leap-frog, but to cheetah pole-vault over other nations, if it is methodical about its approach in the ICT and other sectors.”

Currently, though, telecommunication companies in South Sudan are in limbo. CEO of Zain telecoms, Hisham Mustafa Allam, said he could not be ‘100 per cent’ sure that the company’s mobile license would be valid in South Sudan after July. ‘There’s potential for South Sudan, but there are big challenges,’ he said, adding: ‘One of the problems we have right now is it costs lots of money to build sites and do a rollout (of fiber) in the south.’ South Sudan will have to rely on fiber from Kenya and Uganda, making the costs potentially quite high. Zain has reportedly invested 20% of its total expenditures in the south of Sudan, including around 150 base stations.

South Sudan carried out a national survey in 2009, but did not include questions regarding Internet access. However, only 15% of households own a phone, including 8% in rural areas and 59% in urban areas (primarily in the capital city, Juba). The lack of households with phones indicates a lack of electricity and connectivity possibilities in general.

Despite these difficulties, broadband connectivity is within reach. There are three current submarine cables that run to Port Sudan, in the north. From Port Sudan, there is a terrestrial backbone network that extends to major urban areas in the north of Sudan. However, no cables have been laid in South Sudan and there are no plans to connect the backhaul cables in the north with the south, as seen in the map pictured. These cables are:

EASSy – (an East Africa Submarine Cable System with endpoints in South Africa and the Sudan)
FLAG FALCON – (FLAG Alcatel-Lucent Optical Network) – (Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, India, Maldives)
SAS-1 – (Saudi Arabia-Sudan)

Map: Mohamed El Bashir Hiraika

However, there are a series of cable networks near South Sudan that could potentially be expanded into the country:

KDN – Terrestrial cables have been laid and are under-construction in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Discussions are underway to route the cables north to Juba.
Seacom – Involved in the undersea EASSy cables along the coast of East Africa. They announced in June 2011 that they were going to move inland, working with governments of Burundi, Southern Sudan, and Somalia to make a terrestrial cable link in the Somali Cluster (also known as the East African Community – EAC). Most likely, Seacom will partner with KDN and Altech, among other partners.
WIOCC – The largest investor at 29% in the EASSy cable system, the West Indian Ocean Cable Company is comprised of the main telecommunications firms in twelve African countries (listed below). They are constructing East African terrestrial backhaul cables, including a cable line from Kampala, Uganda to Khartoum, Northern Sudan. This line appears to run directly through Southern Sudan, with no plans to land the cable until Khartoum.
- Botswana Telecommunications Corporation
- DALKOM Somalia
- Djibouti Telecom
- Gilat Satcom Nigeria
- Government of Seychelles
- Lesotho Telecommunications Authority
- Onatel Burundi
- TDM Mozambique
- Telkom Kenya
- UCOM Burundi
- Uganda Telecom Limited
- Zantel Tanzania.
INTELSAT – Their satellite New Dawn has alleged potential to cover most of Africa, with the highest bandwidth in West Africa. No private companies in Sudan, nor the Sudanese government, has partnered with them to construct a point of contact.
Umojanet – The African Union program “Nepad” wants to create a terrestrial cable system throughout the African continent, which they call Umojanet. Nepad first expressed this dream in 2000.

In addition to private sector investments in broadband infrastructure, national governments near in East Africa are also investing in fiber optic cables. Their willingness to politically and financially support national broadband networks makes the possible of public-private partnerships more possible. As reported by Seacom in June 2011:

The governments of the East African Community (EAC) are investing over US$400 million in their respective national backbone infrastructure. The cables cover more than 20,600 km.
Rwanda completed a 2300km cable costing more than $60 million.
Tanzania continues to lay its $170 million, 10,000km plus cable.
Burundi is also laying out the cable of 1300 km with the help of $10.5 million grant from the World Bank.
Uganda, acquired a Chinese loan of about $102 million to implement the 2,000km plus cable.
Kenya is also investing $60 million in the National Optic Fiber Backbone Infrastructure (NOFBI). Some 5,000km of the cable had been laid down by June 2010.

Given these investments, South Sudan will feel pressure to compete with its neighbors in the ICT industry, potentially leading the government to support their own national networks and backhaul system. Yet, given the tremendous financial burdens that the government will have in all of its sectors of development, much of the success regarding the ICT and telecommunications industries will depend on public-private partnerships.

July 8, 2011/by actualize

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