Photo: chrisharrison.net

Many international development projects promote national Internet infrastructure with the assumption that increased connectivity will lead to economic growth which will in turn increase the quality of life for citizens in the recipient nations.  However, what is the measured impact of Internet penetration on economic growth?

  • The World Bank
    • 10% increase in Internet penetration leads to a 1% increase in GDP
  • ITU Broadband Commission
    • 10% increase in broadband penetration in China contributes to a 2.5% growth in GDP
    • 10% increase in broadband penetration in low and middle-income countries contributes to a 1.4% increase in economic growth
    • Access to broadband in Brazil has added approximately 1.4% to employment
    • Broadband will create 2 million jobs by 2015 in Europe
  • Kenyan Economic Update
    • Person to person mobile money transfers equated to about 20% of national GDP, with about two-thirds of adults engaging in transfers
    • ICTs are responsible for 0.9% of the 3.7% annual economic growth in Kenya over the past ten years.  In other words, ICTs accounted for one-fourth of the GDP growth in Kenya the past decade.

In addition to these statistics, the Broadband Commission released the following table on the impact of broadband on employment:

Table: Broadband Commission - A Platform for Progress

Despite these promising statistics, there are critics of broadband’s correlation with economic growth.  Charles Kenny from the Center for Global Development recently attacked the World Bank’s claim that 10% increase in Internet penetration leads to a 1% increase in national GDP.  Kenny argued that the study was not peer-reviewed or ultimately published (both of these claims are correct).

Overall, however, studies on national economies and Internet penetration seem to demonstrate a positive correlation between the two.  Hopefully, the ITU’s Broadband Commission will be able to produce more definitive studies in the future, though given their political stance in favor of broadband adoption, it may be more difficult for the ITU to be objective.

 

Trujillo, Honduras - Site of first charter city. Photo: MundoTV

Dr. Paul Romer, economist professor at New York University, is in talks with the Honduras government to establish “new reform zones,” designed to attract foreign investors.  The “charter cities” would be about 1000 square kilometers in size, and be run by foreign developers with their own laws, leasing the land from the Honduras government.

I corresponded with Dr. Romer about the role of broadband technology in charter cities, particularly in Honduras.  His responses to my questions are listed below.  Additionally, Dr. Romer’s presentation at TEDGlobal2009 can be seen here, and an update on the progress in Honduras from TED2011 is located here.

President Lobo of Honduras supports the “cuidad modelo” concept, and endorsed it to government officials.  Last month, the President announced that Trujillo would be the first charter city, with investors from South Korea, Canada, and England, as well as support from the Inter-American Development Bank.
The importance of terrestrial fiber cables for broadband connectivity to charter cities will probably be essential to their economic success.  Additionally, if the cities are to slowly be incorporated into the rest of Honduras’ economy, it will be crucial that traditional businesses in Honduras go online in order to trade with the businesses present at the charter cities.

The social and political implications of a charter city are hotly debated, as critics express their concerns that charter cities are too similar to colonialism and require nations’ to lose their sovereignty.  These issues are complex, and should be debated.  Despite this, Dr. Romer’s vision is thought-provoking and is being put into practice in Honduras.  His answer regarding the role of broadband in charter cities, are listed below:

1. What would be the role of ICTs, particularly broadband Internet in a charter city?

As the developing world urbanizes this century, the cities that will stand out will be the ones that join the global network of hub cities. ICT is one of the key interfaces that will link hub cities to one another, along with the shipping container and the airplane.

The driving force of economic life is the non-rivalry of ideas. Because we can share ideas, each idea has a value proportional to the number of people who use it. Cities are enormous sources of value because they allow us to share ideas in face-to-face exchanges with ever more people. Digital communications are a critical link for sharing the ideas that arise in one city with others around the world. The cities that make it efficient and safe for people to exchange goods, travel, and share information electronically will benefit enormously from an enhanced access to new ideas.

2. Would the Internet be considered a fundamental good in charter cities that should be provided by the government, such as electricity or water, or would it be left to the private sector?

The Internet is an extremely important service. That said, I’m not sure that there is one best way to deliver such utilities across all contexts, or that delivery should breakdown on strictly public or private lines. For much of the developing world, government provision and self-finance, supplemented by sovereign debt, might not be enough to provide citizens with access to adequate utilities and infrastructure. Governments will have to find ways to harness the private sector in order to provide adequate levels of service.

3. Do you envision the Internet being a platform for communication essential within charter cities or is it expendable?

Low cost bandwidth and redundant connections will be essential for any city that aspires to be a global hub.

4. In particular with Honduras, what technologies do you envision being publicly provided?

The Hondurans are discussing a model of land-based public finance in the new city. The autonomous development authority that is responsible for governing the new city would retain ownership of the underlying land and lease parcels to private developers to build residences, industrial parks, etc. The development authorities revenue would therefore depend on the value of the land.

This system gives the local authority an incentive to think like a sophisticated real estate developer and ask the right question when thinking about what the governing authority should do, either on its own or by working with private firms: What maximizes the value of the land?

Certain things come immediately to mind such as low-levels of crime and pollution, high quality schooling, and access to sear and air ports, but access to broadband and mobile telephony would certainly be important factors as well.

But again, whether things like infrastructure, utilities, or technologies are publicly or privately provided is somewhat of an open question. I can think of a couple scenarios in the Honduran context.

Suppose an equilibrium is reached where everyone expects a city of a given size to emerge in Honduras. There are several services with big fixed costs that could be provided by either the city administration or the private sector. Think for example of telecoms. The efficient financing arrangement would be for the city administration to pay for the provision of the telecoms infrastructure (fiber and wireless) and then price bandwidth using congestion pricing. In the case of fiber, congestion pricing might imply a zero price, but the city administration could finance fiber through the increase in the value of its land. Consumers would capture the entire consumer surplus from being able to use bits at marginal cost, and would be willing to pay more to live there as a result. So absent any constraints, the efficient arrangement might be for the city administration to rely more on its own ability to borrow against increases in the value of the land and less on monopoly prices charged by private sector providers.

Now consider the other case. Suppose that there is some uncertainty about whether the equilibrium with a fully developed city will be sustained and therefore some constraint on the city administration’s ability to borrow against the future value of the land. In this case, one might want to rely more on private sector financing. The city administration could give private concessions for services like telecoms, roads, utilities that will not be fully competitive. It could regulate pricing, setting some kind of average cost pricing that keep monopoly distortions from being too big, but allowing for the unavoidable level that comes with prices above marginal cost. This will, in the long run, make the city less attractive as a place to live and show up in the price of land, but might be a second-best solution to the initial financing problems.

One might also use a transitional approach, like build, operate, transfer, where the city administration takes over infrastructure later and shifts toward marginal cost/congestion pricing later.

The point is that given these tradeoffs, the right division is between private and public finance in the early stages of development will have to be made in response to public expectations that affect the city government’s ability to borrow. There is some capital like equipment and structures that can be provided in a competitive market and that the private sector can provide entirely on its own, but much like roads, telecoms, and utilities it could go either way.

5. Do you have any strong opinions regarding the ITU’s Broadband Commission and the need to provide Internet to all people worldwide?

I certainly sympathize with the intentions, but I’m not a big believer in mandates or millennium goals or codified rights as a way to force governments to do their job well. I believe it is better to harness the power of competition by letting people vote with their feet. The vision behind charter cities is to help in creating a world where every family has a choice to move between several well-run cities that are actively competing for their residency. If would-be migrants had those kinds of options, governments would have the right incentives to extend things like broadband services to all people.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the largest source of development assistance in the Americas, dedicated its flagship annual analysis of challenges in the region—Development in the Americas— to the role of ICTs in economic development.

The report “Development Connections: Unveiling the Impact of New Information Technologies” critically looks at how ICTs contributed to the success of 46 development projects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) across multiple sectors: finance, health, institutions, education, poverty, and the environment.

The IDB hails the report as a landmark as it is “the first in the region to systematically apply strict statistical methods to measure how technologies affected project outcomes”. The report reinforced the view that ICTs are merely tools for economic development and social change. The IDB says there ought to be greater effort to boost capacity at the country level to effectively leverage ICTs. The Bank adds that physical infrastructure, institutions and regulations must be strengthened to realize the full economic and social benefits of ICTs.

This position reflects a theme that I have captured in a series of blog posts about bold policies in Kenya and Tanzania—and the need for a similar approach in Haiti. A clear ICT strategy with cross-sectoral backing will enable a vibrant ICT climate and foster economic expansion, plus unearth social benefits.

The report also echoed the need to focus on local realities, and adds that focusing on the latest technologies will not necessarily solve highly contextual problems. Another argument that I have proffered in previous blogs. The best solutions to many of the developing world’s intractable problems have and will continue to stem from the ingenious use of LOW END technologies. As leaders across LAC strive to bridge the digital divide, this report should serve as a reminder that although access is a vital part of the ICT frenzy, it will not be enough to boost economic growth. The development of human capital and setting clear policy goals that match the unique needs of countries and regions is vital.

The IDB’s report shows that the reality in LAC isn’t in tune with that fact. Less than 40 percent of the projects reviewed by the IDB showed strong benefit from the adoption of ICTs, while 61 percent benefited partially. If nothing else, this study should prompt greater interest in more robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of projects with an ICT component. It is time for a uniquely designed M&E approach for ICT projects!

 

The Ghanian government will spend $10 billion to realize its potential as a major ICT hub in West Africa.

Last week, Ghana said it “initiated the establishment of an innovation center that will promote export-oriented ICT products and services and generate employment opportunities.” The center will form part of an ICT Park to be built in Tema.

The West African nation notes that these plans are part of its drive to build a knowledge-based economy. The “Communications Minister, Mr Haruna Idrissu, said ICT parks worldwide played a critical role as intermediaries that supported knowledge-based economies.” The minister cited the Smart Village in Egypt, Innovation hub in South Africa, Software Technology in India and Technology Park in Malaysia as models for Ghana.

The establishment of ICT Parks may also strengthen the link between Ghanian research institutions and industry. This may engender a culture of commercial research funding, instead of the state-based framework currently used.

Mr. Idrissu says the project is a collaboration between Ghanian businesses, and the Ministries of Trade and Industry and Communication, which will stimulate private sector-led investment in ICT infrastructure. The proposed park is expected to promote technology development and diffusion, and stimulate the formation of new technology-based firms, which will boost wealth creation and provide jobs.

He says efforts are underway to build consensus for the project. Stakeholders were invited to a meeting to view the proposed design of the ICT Park. Ghana has instituted a range of measures to boost its position as a leading player in Africa’s emerging technology sector. Its eGhana project is slated to create over 7, 000 high-end jobs.

 

picture of morroco

Morocco has launched three new projects, including a $US 65 million research fund, to encourage partnerships between researchers and businesses and boost investments on cutting edge innovations.

 

The project includes building four new ‘innovation cities’—science and technology hubs that will host research centers, specialized companies and business incubators—will establish the Moroccan Center for Innovation (MCI), and three research funds worth $US 65 million.

 

Moroccan education minister Ahmed Akhchichine said that three innovation cities will be built this year in Fez, Marrakech and Rabat, and the preparations for a fourth center in Casablanca are underway and will be ready next year.

 

The goal of the Moroccan Centre for Innovation, who leads the strategy, is to track down potential inventors at the country’s universities and provide them with the financial backing to implement their innovations.

 

The funds will support grants for young researchers, and the research and development divisions of certain companies according to Ahmed Reda Chami, Morocco’s minister of industry, commerce and new technologies.

 

Youssef Ait Ali, an inventor, said that these grants could help in removing the financial blockades that have continuously obstruct the rolling out of new inventions.

 

“The government is prepared to raise the amounts that are budgeted for encouraging innovation and creativity to keep up with the demand,” Finance Minister Salaheddine Mezouar said.

We’re waiting for your proposals, ideas and projects, and we will provide the necessary means to realise them on the ground

 

These government-backed initiatives have the financial and regulatory framework to heighten and sustain innovation throughout the country. Akhchichine is hopeful at this projects prospects, “Last year, Moroccan universities managed to produce 40 patents, compared with less than 10 patents in the previous year”, he said, giving credit to the government incentives.

 

Moroccan inventors and innovations unions welcomed the new projects but emphasized that there is still a long way to go for the country to maintain a threshold of innovation,

 

Abderrahim Boumediane, president of the Moroccan Inventors and Innovators Association, said most of the government’s reforms in the innovation field could turn out to be ineffective as, “Morocco still doesn’t have a ministry for scientific research”, which hampers the sustainability of such projects.

 

However, according to Akhchichine, the government is currently working to reform this measure and is in the process of creating a legal and regulatory framework for scientific research.

 

 

 

Man sitting on a pile of yellow cablesWhen we last examined the Indian IT boom on this blog we were left with a few important conclusions.  First, it became clear that the IT boom was driven by software exports and that these exports grew linearly until 1992.  In that year something happened in the industry and software exports began to take off in an exponential manner.

Knowing that the primary input into software is labor, and that the rate of employment growth didn’t change dramatically, we can be certain that this take off in software exports was caused by massive increases in labor productivity; and we have a graph to show it.  The figure below shows revenues per worker in the software industry over the course of the 1990s.

The takeoff is extraordinary. By the late 1990s software firms were hiring as many engineers as they could find, and each additional worker was leading to even higher marginal revenues.  Shockingly, despite the huge IT workforce that was a precursor to the boom in the first place, by the end of the decade the number one complaint of IT firms in business surveys was a scarcity of labor.

The boom in labor productivity could only have come from two sources: better management practices and moving up the value chain (and it in fact came from both).  India already had highly trained workers, and these workers were already working with advanced machinery. They were however engaged in simple work conducted “on-site” – mostly systems design, analysis and coding.  There were few, if any, Indian firms doing turnkey software projects.  By the early 2000s that fact had changed completely.  Whereas in 1988 90% of all software exports were “on-site” services, by 2003 that number was down to 40% and falling.

What happened to allow India to move up the software value chain and to force firms to invest heavily in improved management practices?  The logical place to start looking for clues is in the massive political change that occurred in India in 1991.  In the 1950’s Nehru had established a Soviet-style system of central planning and restrictions on the private sector that came to be known as the “License Raj.”  But in ’91, facing a currency crisis that required IMF intervention, the international community forced reforms on India that made it much easier for businesses to spring up and foreign investment to pour in.  And pour in it did: the graph below shows foreign investment into India throughout the 1990s. Its exponential shape seems to mirror that of software exports.

Graphs displaying FDI Flows In India, by year

 

But of course the story isn’t quite that simple.  While the 1992-99 period did see 68 multinational software firms establish offices in the country, software exports have always been largely the domain of domestic firms.  By 2001 multinationals still accounted for only 15% of such exports from India.

It is also important to note that in 1990 and 1991 the government established a series of software technology parks (STPs).  The first one opened in Bangalore in August 1990 and included modern communications networks that were beyond the reach of ordinary firms.  Even after liberalization the government continued to do this, and by 2002 there were 39 parks that together accounted for 80% of the country’s software exports.

So we have a lot of different elements – some involving liberalization and some involving outright subsidization – that were woven together to create a unique growth recipe for IT in India.  The story can be told briefly somewhat like this.

In the mid-1980s, while Indian IT was almost entirely focused on on-site services, Texas Instruments came in and established a research and development center in Bangalore.  The exact reasons they were willing to go through the trouble of starting a subsidiary in India during the License Raj years are unknown, but the fact that they had an IIT-educated Indian VP may well have had something to do with it.  Many of their multinational competitors watched from afar as this business was set up, but none followed.  Bangalore at the time TI arrived was a hub of the Indian defense industry, home of an IIT, and a logical place for the government to establish a science and technology park.  They did so largely at the urging of the software exporters specializing in “on-site” software development.  They felt that with better data links to their work sites (links they couldn’t afford on their own) they would be better able to do more of their work in India.  That would save them a large amount of money in both travel and in the division of labor.  Often consultants that went out from India on site visits were top tier company employees – they had to be capable of the most complex tasks that clients would ask of them.  But these top employees spent little of their time on the ground doing complex tasks.  Often times they simply coded, a job for which software engineers in the US and Europe almost never do Pronab Sen noted that because of this phenomenon the average productivity of an Indian on-site software engineer in the US was only 30% of his American counterpart.  With reliable data links the on-site consultant could farm this work out to employees at home and spend more of his time doing complex work.

By 1993 this had begun to happen.  “Off-shoring,” the development of software in India, had jumped by a third over the previous two years.  Consequently, the labor productivity associated with the primary industry laborers, the on-site software engineers, had begun to soar.  As more and more work was done off-shore by the companies that had previously requested on-site services, they became more comfortable with it.  Gradually, more and more valuable work was allowed to be off-shored.

At the same time that “on-site” consulting firms were beginning to do more offshore work India was liberalizing.  The firms that had long watched Texas Instruments, and had seen them prove that successful R&D could be done in India, finally could make a business case to move into the country.

So foreign software firms began to move into India, and previously on-site clients began to do more work off-shore, all at the same time. This led to a fierce competition for the primary resource in the IT sector, programmers and engineers.  But interestingly, as pointed out by the economist Suma Athreye, the Indian firms and the multinationals were only competing in the input market, not the product market.  The large multinational subsidiaries established in India sold their product only to their parent company.  This meant that the presence of multinational firms in India forced salaries up, forced domestic firms to adopt more efficient labor use strategies, but did not compete with (and potentially destroy) them.  These positive incentives had an impact on labor productivity.  By the late 1990’s Indian firms had earned ISO certifications that were on par with the multinationals with whom they were competing for talent.  A culture of organizational management expertise was inaugurated, and as new Indian firms were created in throughout the 1990’s they sought this expertise as well.  So it was truly a combination of moving up the value chain and improved business processes that led to the labor productivity boom, and it was brought about by a unique combination of public policies (some liberal, some not) and private sector initiative.

What lessons can we draw from this experience?  I pull out a few, but am happy to debate them.

1)   In India business parks were successful.  I can think of many places where they were not.  They worked in India because existing business had a need (connectivity) that the business park could solve.  They were not meant to create an industry out of nothing.

2)   A plan that relies on accessing export markets can work, but it works really well when you have limited competition and your citizens hold management positions with the primary overseas clients.

3)   The entry of multinationals had a catalytic effect on growth in software exports from domestic Indian firms.  This is likely because they only competed in input markets, not output markets, and because Indian firms were already well established.

I could probably go on, but a trend is emerging.  It seems that standard interventions to support ICT industries – a business park, a strategy of liberalization – can go either of two ways.  It can help your industry or hurt it, depending on conditions on the ground. This argues strongly for heterodox policies that are country specific and take account of these circumstances.

 

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